Appendix C – Situation Analys, Strategies, Actions, and Theories of Change

The following situation model was developed by the WCRP Planning Team to “map” the project context and brainstorm potential actions for implementation. Green text is used to identify actions that were selected for implementation (see Strategies & Actions), and red text is used to identify actions that the project team has decided to exclude from the current iteration of the plan, as they were either outside of the project scope, or were deemed to be ineffective by the Planning Team.

Figure 8. Situation analysis developed by the Planning Team to identify factors that contribute to fragmentation (orange boxes), biophysical results (brown boxes), and potential strategies/actions to improve connectivity (yellow hexagons) for target species in the Lower Nicola River watershed.

Strategies and Actions

The Planning Team identified five broad strategies to implement through this WCRP: 1) crossing rehabilitation, 2) lateral barrier rehabilitation, 3) dam rehabilitation, 4) barrier prevention, and 5) communication and education. Individual actions were qualitatively evaluated based on the anticipated effect each action will have on realizing on-the-ground gains in connectivity. Effectiveness ratings are based on a combination of “Feasibility” and ”Impact”. Feasibility is defined as the degree to which the project team can implement the action within realistic constraints (financial, time, ethical, etc.), and Impact is the degree to which the action is likely to contribute to achieving one or more of the goals established in this plan.

Strategy 1: Lateral Barrier Rehabilitation

Table 15. Strategy 1: Lateral barrier rehabilitation (priority on reconnecting thermal refugia).

ID

Actions

Details

Feasibility

Impact

Effectiveness

1.1

Rehabilitate dykes, berms, and other lateral barriers

The group selected a feasibility rating of High based on the assumption that our focus will be on smaller and cheaper projects, such as reconnecting ephemeral habitat and maintenance around the railroad dyke to reconnect wetland habitat.

High

Very high

Effective

1.2

Rehabilitate natural barriers to lateral connectivity

This can include various methods, such as beaver dam analogues.

High

Very high

Effective

1.3

Knowledge Gap: Improve mapping of lateral habitat and thermal refugia

Thermal imagery collected via drones could be used to map thermal refugia.

High

High

Effective

1.4

Knowledge Gap: Revisit previous rehabilitation and off-channel habitat creation projects to assess whether they are still fish-passable

Very high

Very high

Very effective

1.5

Review LiDAR, aerial imagery, and field assessments to determine immediate lateral connectivity needs

Very high

Very high

Very effective

Strategy 2: Crossing Rehabilitation

Table 16. Strategy 2: Crossing rehabilitation.

ID

Actions

Details

Feasibility

Impact

Effectiveness

2.1

Remove and decommission barriers

High

Very high

Effective

2.2

Upgrade and resize crossings

Examples include installing larger culverts, replacing closed- with open-bottom culverts, or upgrading from culverts to bridges.

Very high

High

Effective

2.3

Install and maintain temporary mitigation

This strategy entails retrofitting structures to provide passage until the structure can be replaced or decommissioned.

Medium

High

Need more information

2.4

Initiate a barrier owner outreach program

This can include reaching out to the Cattleman's Association, as well as potentially working with producers to adapt water-management practices. The outputs and materials generated could be exported outside the watershed to assist other watershed organizations with landowner engagement as well.

High

Medium

Need more information

2.5

Request regulatory action for non-compliant crossings

Request provincial and federal agencies to require that targeted, high-priority barriers be rehabilitated.

High

High

Effective

2.6

Knowledge Gap: Identify barriers and map barrier ownership

High

Very high

Effective

2.7

Knowledge Gap: Continue updating the structure prioritization model

The model process will be finalized, and priorities will be updated as new information becomes available.

Very high

Very high

Very effective

2.8

Knowledge Gap: Adapt the provincial fish passage framework to account for ephemeral habitat

Ephemeral habitat is especially important in the Lower Nicola River and needs to be accounted for in habitat surveys and evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

High

Very high

Effective

2.9

Knowledge Gap: Assess barriers by applying an adapted version of the provincial fish passage framework

The first three steps are (1) barrier assessments, (2) habitat confirmations (including of ephemeral habitat), and (3) rehabilitation designs.

High

Very High

Effective

Strategy 3: Dam Rehabilitation

Table 17. Strategy 3: Dam rehabilitation.

ID

Actions

Details

Feasibility

Impact

Effectiveness

3.1

Remove dams

Medium

Very high

Need more information

3.2

Install fish passage

Medium

High

Need more information

3.4

Knowledge Gap: Continue updating the barrier prioritization model

The model process will be finalized, and prioritizations will be updated as new information becomes available. This can also include data related to flows.

Very high

Very high

Very effective

3.5

Knowledge Gap: Assess dams to determine whether they exist and are truly blocking fish habitat

Focus on identifying ownership of priority dams that we want to rehabilitate in the short term.

Very high

High

Effective

3.6

Knowledge Gap: Identify and map dam ownership

Very high

Very high

Very effective

Strategy 4: Barrier Prevention

Table 18. Strategy 4: Barrier prevention.

ID

Actions

Details

Feasibility

Impact

Effectiveness

4.1

Work with land users to improve their aquatic connectivity practices

This can be done through the barrier ownership program, or for landowners that do not currently own barriers, this could include encouraging better consultation before crossings are installed.

High

High

Effective

4.2

Monitor new crossing installation compliance with passage regulations

Very high

High

Effective

Strategy 5: Partner Development

Table 19. Strategy 5: Partner Development

ID

Actions

Details

5.1

Engage and explore integration with existing regional initiatives

Engage and coordinate with the Nicola Watershed Governance Project and Fraser Basin Council initiatives (e.g., Risk Assessment Methodology for Salmon) to inform decision-making and implementation related to the strategies developed in this plan. These strategies will be shared with local First Nations, DFO, and others to inform coordinated efforts to restore fish productivity in the watershed. Connectivity work will be incorporated where appropriate to achieve the greatest returns and longevity of benefits.

Theories of Change

Theories of change explicitly state assumptions around how the identified actions will achieve gains in connectivity and contribute to achieving the goals of the plan. To develop theories of change, the Planning Team developed explicit assumptions for each strategy to clarify the rationale used for undertaking actions and provided an opportunity for feedback on invalid assumptions or missing opportunities. The theories of change are results oriented and clearly define the expected outcome. The following theory of change models were developed by the WCRP Planning Team to “map” the causal (“if-then”) progression of assumptions of how the actions within a strategy work together to achieve project goals.

Figure 9. Theories of change model developed by the Planning Team for the actions identified under Strategy 1: Lateral Barrier Rehabilitation in the Lower Nicola River watershed.

Figure 10. Theories of change model developed by the Planning Team for the actions identified under Strategy 2: Stream Crossing Rehabilitation in the Lower Nicola River watershed

Figure 11. Theories of change developed by the Planning Team for the actions identified under Strategy 3: Dam Rehabilitation in the Lower Nicola River watershed.

Figure 12. Theories of change developed by the Planning Team for the actions identified under Strategy 4: Barrier Prevention in the Lower Nicola River watershed.